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Jan 10th, 2024; Yes it is depressing, but the Far Left and overall Centre-Left failures both must be faced and learned from if possible.
To introduce as simply as possible, there was a partial political meltdown (variegated by the type of election, ie worst in the Presidential) on the back of a particularly bad year (except the Far Left failure allowed a small Peronist recovery) after a decade of economic depression brought on by a succession of politicians of both establishment Right and Center-Left who caved to demands for re-payment of National debt which Argentina had tried to cancel, then deferred. Inflation (a significant problem since at least 2018) hitting 138% (and rising) recently and the economy described as being in ‘intensive care’ (though there has been economic growth since 2021 suggesting yet another situation where wealth/income is being re-distributed upwards) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-braces-election-with-economy-intensive-care-2023-10-19/
With their now (it seems) worldwide propaganda expertise, the Far Right won the election media battle, somehow getting support for Milei’s scorched earth policy (in relation to removing the protections of the social state). Unlike 2011 here there is little positive to be said with debacles hitting both Center-Left and Far Left, unless the mistakes of both can be learned from (which is why it needs to be analysed of course). We have enough example here of the failure of Fianna Failism and Irish Laborism, so I shall concentrate on trying to analyse the failure of the Far Left to see if lessons can be learned.
It is hard to be concise especially at a remove. Let’s begin with the messy Left-Populist phenomenon known as Kirchnerism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirchnerism centred on the Left Populist wing of the long dominant Peronist Justicalist Party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justicialist_Party (Peron himself flirting with Fascism during World War 2, and allowing Nazi War criminals refuge after) has been in decline since at least 2015. Somewhat incredible that it evolved a serious Left, but somehow it did (it might be compared to the populism of the Republican tradition here). Kirchnerism’s candidate hasn’t been selected as the Peronist presidential candidate since its 2011 landslide victory due a combination of corruption scandals and the pressure of economic depression.
The once catch all Peronist coalition has shed the liberals of the left of the centre-right ‘Radical UCR’ (who went back home, imagine Fitzgerald FGers?) but (despite the internal shift to the center-right) retained that of Stalinist and Maoist tradition along with Left nationalist minor parties who still combine 7 seats in the lower chamber (across 3 ‘Communist’ and several other, including sub-coalitions-see the election wikis). Allied with broad Peronism have been the long dominant conservative Peronist Unions of the main CGT confederation (it declared solidarity with Israel in Oct 23) and off-shoots who have suffered a steep decline (This is implied by the rise of informal workers to 49%, see the paragraph on the Argentine Left debate -readily available membership figures are very out of date). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Confederation_of_Labour_(Argentina)
To boot the once (in the 00s) powerful Piquetero (unemployed) social movement/union has become fragmented into Peronist co-opted and Left aligned (itself very fragmented) bits. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piquetero
As the once mighty (and badly divided between Right, Centre and Left leaning factions) populist Peronist+allies machine went into decline, there was only the Ultra-Left dominated ‘Worker’s Left Front’/FIT-U as an electoral alternative to the Left (whose sectarianism I imagine many found too hard to stomach). Their support peaked back at the 2021 mid-term election at 5.5% close to the Far Right LLA with 7.2%. The main Peronist coalition at 34% and Establishment Right at 42% (an earlier symptom of the Peronist decline) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Argentine_legislative_election
In the recent 2023 legislative election the FIT_U went back to 3.3% , and 2.7% in the Presidential 1st round despite their candidate being seen as their best, indicating an abject failure on their part to be seen to be relevant, see https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/51444/who-votes-for-the-far-right-in-latin-america for stark election data showing how Milei won both the Youth and the less well off), the Peronist Centre-Left recovering to 38.5% (which proved a bit of a mirage in the Presidential 2nd round, its Centrist candidate inspired so little he could only win 44% against Milei in the head to head), the Far Right LLA and Establishment Right having tied at about 26.5% each inn the legislative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election (with Milei 2nd in the 1st round and outpolling the established right by a big margin) leaving the field clear for the Far Right take off in the 2nd round of the Presidential election (after the deal with the Establishment Right). I note that ironically there was a weak economic recovery since 2021 (though seen as already sliding back into recession) which seems to have helped the now Centrist dominated Peronists a bit.
Milei’s expanded coalition unfortunately for now has a paper Lower House majority. His core alliance now has 39 seats, the Established Right 92 and the Schiaretti Peronist Right about 8 giving a majority for the Broad Right coalition with 139 seats to 108 main Peronist (including left leaning allies detailed above) and 5 Far Left FIT-U and 5 independents in the 257 seat house. There is a possibility that the left of the Liberalish Radicals (UCR and Rad Evolution) might eventually peel off as before (they control about half the Established Right seats, the other half are Macri Neo-con supporters in the PRO party), but for now they are allowing Milei howl at the moon while machinating behind his back. eg the established Right have their man over the supposedly to be abolished Central Bank, while Schiaretti also has a carve out. https://www.clarin.com/economia/javier-milei-ratifico-cerrara-banco-central-asunto-negociable_0_ynILNrdYhs.html (leading liberalish paper).
While the gravy train will thus continue for a select few, there is little doubt that the (further) major cutbacks for the many that the Established Right wanted all along will soon be coming. The distraction show of the ‘libertarian’ Far Right Milei fooling many sadly. I expect the Far Right were very good at playing on the resentments of informal workers, especially the young. It is not hard to imagine how that might work, given the especial cut-backs to youth social welfare here following 09.
The debate on the Left continues with a faction aligned with the (less unhinged part of the) 4th international arguing for a Broad Front Strategy urgently to resist the Broad Right https://poderpopular.com.ar/ (site of their sub coalition in Spanish) on the streets (and presumably in parliament). In particular they see informal and self-employed (ie non-union) workers as having been a big part of the Milei vote (49% of the workforce is thus claimed following years of de-unionisation, the figure was 43.5% in 2016) in this article which discusses the crisis of Peronism and weakening of the Working class (in detail with lots of facts). https://poderpopular.com.ar/2023/11/26/mas-alla-del-19-de-noviembre/
Whether the guys with the parliamentary seats (4 of the 5 FIT-U are aligned with the ultra-left PTS-‘Trotskyist Faction of the 4th international’) will drop their sectarian posing to go along with this strategy is beyond my ken (they seem to realise these are critical times but may have burnt too many bridges?). They can be found here in Spanish https://www.laizquierdadiario.com/ (there is some limited English translation at their USA comrade site to be found in the links there).
Anarchist leaning opinion can be found here (an affiliate of the 2nd veering broad left) https://www.anred.org/ And here (an Indymedia look alike which studiously ignores electoral politics entirely. It claims many affiliates, so it may be that their politics are very diffuse). https://rnma.org.ar/rnma/
Those needed to fill out a broad front include the unions (the majority of which are still linked at the waist to the Peronists). The liberalish ‘Buenos Aries Herald’ report seems to indicate some will try to deal with the new government. I note Macri the last right wing President is apparently feared more than the seeming scarecrow figure of Milei at this moment. https://buenosairesherald.com/politics/javier-milei-election-victory-unions-and-cgt-reorganize-to-ease-the-panic Further Macri’s man Caputo has been confirmed as Economy minister. https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/javier-milei-confirms-luis-caputo-will-be-his-economy-minister If the Peronist unions can get special deals, are they that corrupted that they will they stand by while Milei and Macri savage the welfare state? Thankfully initial reaction is showing major opposition so far. Milei’s victory no doubt woke the Peronists up further.
To illustrate the out of touchness of the Argentine Social Democratic component (about 7 seats in 5 parts of the Peronist coalition), the German Social Democrat funded site NUSO (a bit of an overly lofty space with abstract pieces on world affairs) gives a left leaning analysis with some sense https://nuso.org/articulo/el-huracan-milei/ ( ‘The result of the election ended up being almost a carbon copy of that of Jair Bolsonaro against Fernando Hadad in 2018’ – which is obvious enough) but does not adequately account for the exhaustion of the Left Peronism known as Kirchnerism. Ex-president Christina Fernandez once a heroine of the masses could not even hold her own locality, let alone province (Santa Cruz in Patagonia). The Peronist coalition being defeated in both by around 2 to 1 margins https://www.clarin.com/politica/javier-milei-gano-57-votos-santa-cruz-cristina-kirchner-perdio-propia-mesa_0_uThv3xeAAu.html
Nothing is certain, but for now I would guess it might take years of struggle for a broad left project to assemble out of the ashes of the Peronist dream and train derailment of the Far Left. Perhaps FIT-U will eventually join with the Left sounding bits of Peronism to create one (akin to the Danish Red-Green Enhedlisten?), but just as likely these bits will continue to jostle for power within the Peronist coalition unless there are radical re-thinks as a result of struggle. Kirchnerism’s New hope is governor of Buenos Aries province Kirchoff where the Right wing tide was resisted (unlike the actual city). Local broad fronts have been created though as described in the conclusion of this mostly grim account. https://jacobin.com/2023/11/javier-milei-libertarian-authoritarian-argentina-peronism-inflation-presidential-election
Finally on the urgency of the current moment (If their Ultra Left ‘Trotskyist Fraction’ detractors were ever actually noticed, there may be a bit of irony with the DSA and Die Linke analysts getting one back at them). https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/51474/argentinas-state-of-emergency
Although Argentina has long been seen as economically advanced by Latin American standards, yet more years of depression for the Working class and Precariat should eventually produce a new basic Populist Left project as happened in Bolivia. Will this be truly radical or another cloud of reformist hot air in yet another incarnation of populist Peronism (as yet another generation is persuaded by mainstream media to go with such)? Time will tell.
gtimony 